BACK IN 2014, during the ‘Once in a generation’ independence referendum, you could barely move for outlandish claims that “Only a Yes vote can guarantee…” anything and everything – it might as well have been Scotland qualifying for a major football championship to a visit from Santa at Christmas.
It will come as no surprise to regular observers of the SNP that they are still at it, and arguably worse than before. While in 2014 the nationalists tried to be all things to all people in an attempt to maximise its support, now they are leveraging a single issue to increase further division in Scotland; specifically, on the issue of Brexit and the EU.
The SNP is simplistically presenting independence as the ‘solution’ to Brexit. There are a number of fallacies around this, not least of which is over a million Scots voted for Brexit, a figure conveniently whitewashed over by the SNP at every available opportunity.
The ‘solution’ to major constitutional change that has been opposed, in part, because of the major upheaval and threat to the economy it will cause, is not further constitutional change that has the potential to cause significantly more upheaval and carries three times the economic risk than the first change.
Putting aside for now the SNP’s breaking of the vow that the referendum would be a “once in a generation opportunity” (later stretched tin desperation to “once in a lifetime”) – we now have to take account of the pandemic, the economic and social recovery from that, as well as the healing of any wounds from the last two referendums – and it is clear that now is not the time for yet another referendum.
Of even greater concern, however, should be the fact that an independent Scotland would not even come close to qualifying for membership of the EU. The EU is a rules-based organisation, with the Copenhagen Criteria dictating the economic entry requirements for membership, while the legal and administrative rules are set by the Aquis Criteria.
For example, to meet the Copenhagen Criteria an independent Scotland would need to demonstrate good and consistent monetary governance which, given the SNP’s policy is to use the British pound as its currency, shows an unwillingness to acknowledge the rules let alone apply them.
We could, of course, use the Euro but that encounters exactly the same challenges as Scotland would be unable to control monetary policy, interest rates or exchange rates, just as it could not if it used the pound. It also requires a period of adjustment that presumes Scotland having its own currency to move away from – and that’s not the policy.
The other alternative would be to establish a Scottish currency from scratch, with or without the intention of joining the Euro later, but the exorbitant costs involved in that, including establishing a central bank with substantial reserves put by nationalists themselves at circa £40bn, would in itself require levels of austerity unseen thus far in Scotland.
All of this is before (yes, before) an independent Scotland facing up to the prospect of swingeing cuts and rocketing tax hikes as it tries to fill the gap left by the £15bn annual fiscal transfer that comes from Westminster.
As if the above wasn’t bad enough, the Aquis Criteria is even more stringent, requiring 35 different legal and administrative criteria to be met, each of which is negotiated and signed off separately, which can take years, even decades. Currently the UK matches the EU’s Aquis Criteria because we were members until the start of 2020, so for Scotland to match up with it should not present an immediate problem. The longer, however, that the UK leaves the EU behind the more we are likely to diverge and the more Scotland would need to then reverse throttle. For instance we would need to accept giving up any gains on fishing or freeports or other regulations that we have changed. This could prove very unpopular with Scots enjoying the benefits of deregulation and taking back control (only to hand it over to Brussels again).
Due to all this complexity the SNP commissioned a review into the likelihood of Scotland being admitted into the EU called the Copenhagen Report. We know, however, it must have been bad news for them given the lengths they have gone to deny the public access to a report which our taxes paid for; first denying its existence and then releasing it so heavily redacted it resembled a barcode more than a government report. Like the OECD education report freedom of information and transparency counts for nothing with the so-called progressive and liberal SNP. Nicola Sturgeon’s government is authoritarian to its core.
Most supporters of secession I know have no desire to devastate the economy of Scotland, but they also seem to have no real impression of the costs and damage that pursuing their desires to its logical conclusion would have on an isolated Scotland.
Many argue that all will be fixed by our newfound access to the European single market upon our instantaneous membership of the EU upon gaining independence. Even allowing for this self-evident fallacy, Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK far outweighs its trade with the EU and the rest of the World combined. Erecting a hard border between Scotland and the remaining UK simply to ease access to ‘single market’ – especially when the UK government has already negotiated a Trade & Cooperation Agreement to achieve the same outcome – is nothing other than highly damaging economic self-harm.
The SNP administration’s own figures show that Scotland’s trade with the EU typically fluctuates between 15-20 per cent on an annual basis, while our trade with the rest of the UK is usually around 60-65% every year, even after over 40 years of unfettered access to the EU market.
Are we seriously going to accept that the harm done by erecting barriers to our single biggest trading partner, the UK, is going to be filled by the EU, which even at its peak during EU membership was worth less than a third of our trade with the UK?
No sensible businessperson is going to see that as a risk worth taking for their businesses, their livelihoods of their futures. If they can relocate they will – taking their skilled employees and their tax revenues with them – or leaving them behind to become a welfare cost to the new Scottish state.
Why does any of this matter ahead of the Holyrood elections today? Because once again ‘independence’ is being sold by the SNP under a false premise, and every single vote cast for the SNP is going to be interpreted if not claimed as a green light to enact all of the above, and far more.
Its record in government is woeful and that alone should be enough to discourage you from voting for the SNP, but we must not trust Nicola Sturgeon with our vote so she can pursue her separation agenda at the cost of our schools, our hospitals and all of our futures.
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