THE UK MEDIA seem incredulous that the SNP, on the face of it at least, performed so strongly in yesterday’s Scottish election. How can the Scots be so stupid?
Fair play to the SNP, they won virtually all the constituency elections and came close to a majority. For a party to be the party of Government for a fifth time in a row is clearly impressive, particularly when so many, this author included, believe their record is abject. The headlines are highly deceiving, however.
So, here are a few statistics.
In contrast to the local elections in England where the turnout was generally materially up on last time, for a national election the turnout in Scotland collapsed. Despite a record number of voters enrolled, the numbers voting actually fell by over 400,000. The fact that just 53 per cent bothered to vote in a national election, down ten per cent on lockdown-affected 2021, speaks volumes.
Second, the SNP did sweep the constituency board but in 2021 they secured 1,291,204 votes or a staggering 47.7 per cent of those voting. Yesterday that army had been depleted by 414,000 with a ten per cent lower share on a low turnout. Simply put, just one in five of the registered electorate voted yellow.
The Conservatives shed over half their entire support, losing a staggering 320,000 votes, somewhat more than the 271,000 they achieved. But rather than introspecting as to why this might be so, they squeal entitlement and blame the new kid Reform for cutting their vote. One might think a bit of humility after a generation of failure might be more appropriate.
Labour had another difficult time, from a low base in 2021, but they did hold onto around eighty per cent of their support. Yet at an historic low of seventeen per cent of the popular vote on the list, that is an extraordinary long-term collapse.
The Greens will be laughing today, winning two seats outright – one in one of the most prosperous constituencies in all Scotland, Edinburgh Central. But look again: they secured just 52,000 constituency votes, way less than fill Parkhead on an average Saturday.
Let’s be polite and call it the peculiarity of the list system, but it suggests a lot of SNP supporters gamed the system by lending their vote to the Greens, rather than voting from a fundamental love of this most divisive and ill-informed of parties. Sure, the Greens will bask in their king-making power, dragging the nationalists to ever greater extremes, but I don’t believe it’s a real endorsement of this frankly illiberal, divisive and incoherent party. So odd are many of their ideas I would wager they will further alienate the depleted numbers who again voted SNP.
Then there is Reform. They don’t have a mandate either, of course, but to secure 365,000 votes from scratch, just pipping Labour on the regional list to be second in terms of votes cast, is an extraordinary result for a party that was almost unknown in Scotland just a few years ago.
The truth is Scottish politics has moved so far away from the concerns and aspirations of typical folk that a huge gap in the market has opened up. While the party has been growing steadily over the last five years, with the help of a small and talented band of brothers, it has taken Malcolm Offord’s courage and conviction to package this into a recognisable and distinctive Scottish brand.
What has been achieved in a short period takes Reform to Everest base camp. That is an achievement in itself, but let’s not get carried away. The hard miles start now.
Reform has established itself as a significant force in Scotland. The party has substantially eaten into Conservative support which in large parts of the country is now negligible. Reform, it would seem, has also taken a decent chunk of the nationalist support scunnered by utter SNP cronyism and woke adoration.
But let’s not fool ourselves. While half the population stayed at home, of those who did vote around seventy per cent voted for overtly progressive left parties. This is extraordinary because Scotland is already one of the most centralised, statist and economically stagnant parts of Europe.
The state accounts for well over half of all spending and, as a matter of fact, more than Soviet Poland’s public sector before the Wall came down. Scotland is massively taxed, its public sector is failing and it continues to export its brightest talent given the lack of opportunity here. The list of failure goes on.
So why do turkeys continue to vote for Christmas when the situation is obviously one of decline and failure? Simply put, no sensible economic, moral or cultural case has been put to the Scottish people in at least a generation. The Tories simply contented themselves with the comfort blanket of “Save the Union”, even after the debate had moved on. The real question is how do we make this place work. They had no answers.
With no opposition other than the Union debate, the economic and cultural field became simply a two-way fight between Labour and SNP, each constantly outbidding the other with promises of cash – other people’s cash by the way – and increasingly extreme woke ideology. This is so far from the centre point of the average Scottish family as to be laughable.The media had no alternative to report while our education system increasingly indoctrinated young people into leftist ideology.
Now there is a real opportunity to change the terms of the debate.
The SNP is a prisoner of massive state spending, increasing redistribution and a cultural ideology alien to most Scots. Labour is done; Starmer, or no Starmer, Labour is fighting yesterday’s battles badly. The Conservatives are nice and well-meaning but, to paraphrase the Heineken advert, will simply never reach the parts other beers can.
Reform, on the other hand, can perform the trick of being fiercely Scottish in addressing local and regional concerns while remaining unapologetically Unionist. It appeals to a wide segment of alarm-clock Scotland – those who want their children and grandchildren to prosper here rather than flee to London or Sydney. (Dubai is probably out for now). They believe family and community are the building blocks of society, not the boot of the State. They are fed up with high tax, control and constant interference in what until recently was the private sphere.
Reform now has a platform and has already used that to provide, for the first time in a generation, a distinctive agenda based on growing the economy rather than redistributing a burned cake.
There is a massive job of political education still to be done. Scottish politics has moved the dial so far left that the debate has become skewed and, with it, public perception.
However, through skilled and reasoned argument the terms of debate can slowly but surely alter. Scepticism will grow and perceptions will change.
The SNP will no doubt all be high-fives today but beneath the surface, the cracks are growing, and their Green chums will only widen the chasm. The field is split now, the electorate disillusioned.
The Ancien Régime – based on false promises, a failed economic model and dreadful public service delivery – is on its last legs.
This is the Alpha, not the Omega.
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This article first appeared in The Reformer. Image by Bigbag and Sandbag via Adobe Stock
