LAST SATURDAY I had the pleasure of speaking at the Reform UK conference in Perth. It was actually Reform’s fourth Scottish Conference, but the three previous ones might have fitted in the backroom of some pub.
This one was rather different. 350 attendees, an overflow room, a hugely enthusiastic audience and a dozen speakers including one of two former Tory councillors that had defected to Reform UK that very day.
Richard Tice MP gave the keynote address speaking, as he does, from the heart without any notes for over twenty minutes then taking an array of questions on all manner of subjects. Richard got the standing ovation he so deserved but perhaps most noteworthy was the sheer array of talent from a raft of other speakers, some well-known, others less so.
Those attending were not subject to the usual monologue, politburo style endured at legacy party conferences elsewhere. Instead, genuine debate from a series of genuinely expert speakers talking on net zero, drug addiction, education, farming, local government and much more.
This was a grown-up discussion examining the multiple challenges we face as a nation; economic, cultural and moral, with well thought-out long term solutions based on analysis, not expediency and short-termism, which so typically characterises the pitiful Westminster and Holyrood debates.
Until recently the lazy assumption was that Reform UK is irrelevant in Scotland. The Scots were (of course) far too sophisticated for such nonsense, allegedly preferring a socialist ultra-woke liberal utopia. That narrative enabled the SNP Government to out-woke and outspend Westminster in an extraordinarily brazen fashion.
Scottish Labour, who had made a comeback largely as a reaction to the utterly lamentable Nationalist government, is now coming seriously unstuck as Starmer unravels in an even more spectacular fashion than I expected.
The poor Scottish Conservatives, a bit like a well-meaning and kindly but utterly failing Church of Scotland, have also been swept up by the political zeitgeist largely going along with the economic, social and moral calamity. (If you think the Church of England has lost its way you should see the Scottish equivalent)
They all thought the Scots were, just as the media portrayed, cultural liberals and economic socialists. Some are for sure, but the Scotland I know is generally not that way inclined. It is just that no one has spoken-up for a very large segment of Scottish society. The Conservatives used to but largely left the field, more content with managed decline than trying to change the nature of the political debate.
But for the establishment the warning signs were there. They assumed as a proxy for their views the Brexit referendum confirmed their world view, but despite the fact that virtually no significant Scottish political figure supported Leave over 1,018,322 Leave votes were gathered against 1,661,191 won by Remain. Sure, Remain has a majority north of the border but a very sizable portion said ‘No’. (Some senior elected figures of the Tories and SNP did vote leave but preferred to sit out of the debate, leaving it to less influential unelected and retired campaigners.)
It is of course far too simplistic to suggest this constituency might all be tempted by Reform UK, but the point is clear, many Scots valued sovereignty and are independently mind – as opposed to independence minded, despite the siren warnings of disaster. Worse, the Scottish Conservative Party doubled down with Remain, often conflicting with the instincts of the party’s own support. It’s not a good look telling your own people they were stupid, which is what they effectively did.
The Scotland I remember may indeed be more egalitarian than England, although even here that is debatable as no significant free market case has been argued at political level for well over a generation, but socially I judge the Scots are generally quite conservative with a ‘small c’.
The Scotland I know is proud of its industrial heritage which was world class; proud of its inventions; proud of education which used to be pretty good – based on the collected canon of knowledge, not social justice concepts which have broken its excellence; and proud of its kith and kin.
A quick look around the packed room at the Reform conference and you could see it was full of people holding these traditional Scottish and British values. Family, community and Country as the slogan says. All walks of life were represented and previous political affiliations suggest a fairly even balance of former Conservatives, Labour and SNP supporters. My understanding is, however, the largest group of the new members is ‘none of the above.’ People new to politics who are simply fed up of the delusional state of affairs in our greatly declining land.
Its early days of course, but Reform has been consistently confounding its critics and is on course, if current trends continue, to gain a substantial number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in May 2026.
Opinion polls regularly suggest 12-14 per cent support, running the third placed Conservatives very close. In Glasgow, three very recent council by-elections staggered the self-professed cognoscenti with Reform UK polling between 12-18 per cent – three times the Conservative support in those areas and the only challenge to the Nationalist–Labour duopoly.
Nothing can be taken for granted but I’ll wager Reform UK is here to stay as its language is much closer to the silent majority than any of the other parties can muster. The others seem not to understand why Reform is on the march, preferring cheap slogans of derision. Fine, continue that way if they like, but it misses the point.
I am in little doubt Reform UK is much more likely to grow substantially further than wither. The scales are falling from people’s eyes. They have just done so in the US, doubtless Starmer will stutter on, but with less and less credibility. Scotland’s true colours have been submerged by the elite convincing themselves they live in some progressive utopia. I judge there is culturally little to pick between large swathes of England and the cultural values of many Scots. This terrifies the elite. Watch this space.
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Photo of Richard Tice speaking at the Reform UK conference in Perth courtesy of a participant.
