Identity politics and silly stunts may well have made a second referendum more likely

Identity politics and silly stunts may well have made a second referendum more likely

by Jonathan Stanley
article from Monday 2, July, 2018

IT'S AN ODD and brave opinion to venture into public but I believe the current state of politics in Scotland has created a well lit path to a second referendum with the missing ingredient even now lined up. There is a significant chance now, more than 50/50, that there will be a snap election by the new year.

What is the evidence base that supports this? I have identified three developments that make this likely, if not unstoppable.

1.  There is a great pressure building up under the devolution settlement. Despite the protests of loyal Tories it looks to everyone else like Westminster picked a fight with Holyrood for no good reason. That the SNP responded with outrage was only natural... it's what they do. One cannot blame a shark for snapping at an angler's bait. Why was this nonsense ever dipped into the water in the first place?  All that has been achieved is a vote in Holyrood where the Tories were isolated? Was that the plan all along? To look hopelessly isolated? On a devolution vote? Brilliant!

2.  Keith Brown has been relieved of his duties. Not a great loss per sebut this is not an idle perennial indyref jamboree he will lead. It is a re-election campaign that will use indyref foundations as a proxy to a SNP election campaign. Business for Scotland, as if by magic, has announced just such a fund. Add to that the SNP's latest move of not approving Holyrood bills related to Brexit. It is creating its own paralysis that will demand a solution. 

3.  The unionist vote is split. The Tories are no more popular than Labour really, and after seven years of strong and stable leadership we have a Horlicks of policies so far. I saw the same in UKIP before I re-joined the Conservatives. The trick of talking up policies, talking down the enemy and having jack to offer the voting public beyond a rallying cry (swap leaving the EU with defending the union). At some point it fails and when it fails it fails badly. Now look at the SNP. Lots of policies, lots of new ministers funded by the taxpayer, each with a platform to whack the Tories every chance they get.

Compare this to the Tory bench. What do we have here? When? Most seem to do press release by Twitter and our flag policy areas are dead. Where is the low tax, low regulation economy?  Where is the fight against excessive immigration?  Where is the championing of Scotland after Brexit? Nothing. Not a single tweet on Brexit on 23rd June – but start your bowl of porridge in the morning and you won't finish your second spoon by the time LGBTXYZ appears on the Twitter screen. Transphobia, plastic bottles, the leader is dead good and the single market are all there with bells and whistles on. 

Some threatened rebel votes on Brexit were stupid and indulgent nonsense that caused needless instability to the government and showed a few rebels to be very out of touch with the membership. Never a wise look.

This isn't opposition, it's an identity parade. Not that Labour is any better. It has  followed the McLetchie strategy of holding on tight and doing nothing. 

What on Earth would Better Together Twolook like? Richard Leonard with the radical left, the Blue Madonna on a buffalo and Willie Rennie in a sweater his mum knitted?

Now we see the problem. Far too much hot air and ether make for a heady mix. Nicola is lining up her ducks and they all seem willing to lend a hand.

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