The logic of voting Conservative has won me over...

The logic of voting Conservative has won me over...

by William Ross
article from Wednesday 11, December, 2019

THERE IT IS! I have done it! Something I could never have imagined. I have ticked the Conservative and Unionist box in my postal vote! I urge every single Scottish voter, whether Nationalist or Unionist to vote for Boris Johnson. Are you mad Willie Ross? Quite possibly. But this is the mad Brexit election! There is method behind my madness.

The principal reason that I am voting for Boris is to GET BREXIT DONE. The greatest democratic exercise in British history must be respected and implemented. If not, why would we have any further confidence in our democracy? But Scotland voted heavily Remain – my old colleagues would howl. Hang on. In 2014, the Scottish people, who are the ultimate Scottish sovereign, voted to remain in the UK. The UK is the EU member, the Brexit question was a UK question and the electorate were all the people of the UK. The UK vote was for Leave. And the whole UK must leave. Whether the UK remains as a single state in the years and decades after Brexit is an entirely separate question.

My secondary reason for voting for Boris is more personal. From 1993 until 2001 I worked in Venezuela. My wife is Venezuelan as is my son. Our house in Aberdeenshire is a little Venezuela. Jeremy Corbyn and his followers have repeatedly expressed admiration and support for the regime of Hugo Chavez and his successor Nicolás Maduro. Anyone who believes that the Chavez regime is an example of any kind, for anything, for anyone, simply must not be allowed into 10 Downing Street. There are now up to four million Venezuelan refugees around the world, inflation is into the millions of percent, and Caracas is the most dangerous non-warzone city on earth. A vote cast for anyone but Boris, including the SNP, is a vote for Corbyn. Remember, Johnson needs an absolute majority to become Prime Minister. Corbyn merely needs a hung parliament.

But what about the madness of the parties? It is clear that the SNP can only win Scottish independence by winning a national referendum. But they have spent the last three years trashing the Brexit referendum and they demand a so-called People's Vote next year or, in extremis, even a revocation of Article 50. What happens when Nicola wins IndyRef2 by 52 to 48 per cent? Is that going to be respected? Why would it be? Nicola's asserted mandate basis for Indyref2 is the 2016 Scottish election result when the SNP said that an Article 30 order authorising a new Scottish referendum should be granted if Scotland was taken out of the EU against her wishes. But the SNP did not win a majority in 2016. If Nicola is successful with the 2020 People's Vote, her IndyRef2 mandate disappears because Scotland would not have been “dragged out of Europe” after all. It will be an inconvenient case of nice, sensitive, accommodating Westminster. What good is that to a grievance queen?

More SNP madness lies in the astonishing three-year-old campaign of vilification against the nearly forty per cent of nationalist supporters who voted Leave in 2016. A letter was recently published in the independence supporting The National which accused Brexiteers of being Fascists! How to make friends and influence people! And why merely swap London for even more distant oligarchic Brussels? Why favour the failing protectionist EU economy over the UK, which is by country miles our most important trading partner?

Labour madness is just as pronounced. If Jeremy Corbyn won the election he would negotiate a “new” Withdrawal Agreement with the EU which would keep us closely aligned with EU law and inside the Customs Union. In this kind of “Brexit”, EU free movement would continue as before. In other words, the UK would become a helpless rule-taker without even the benefit of foreign market access negotiated under future EU trade deals. Be in no doubt, the EU will happily sign up to a “new” Withdrawal Agreement on these terms. It would be nothing other than a new Surrender Agreement which would plumb new depths of ignominy. There would be a new “People's Vote” to select either Corbyn's Surrender Deal 2020 or outright brazen Remain. This would be a democratic outrage as it would merely be a choice between a Remain option already rejected in 2016 and a totally dysfunctional semi-Remain option. This “non-choice” would be further rigged by votes for over-16s and EU citizens. How on earth could this be a formula for social cohesion?

Corbyn will also take “No Deal“ off the table because of its supposed catastrophic effect on jobs. Sometimes it becomes so mad that you have a long laugh. The man proposing to nationalise the privatised utilities without any clear market compensation formula is worried about damage to the economy? I have negotiated oil and gas deals up and down the World. Jeremy, you may never have negotiated a single deal of any kind in your life, but Negotiations 101 would teach you that you absolutely cannot negotiate a good deal without having the ability to walk away.

Naturally, Jeremy refuses to tell us whether he will support the very new EU deal that he will quickly negotiate in 2020. However, it is clear what the Labour Cabinet will do. They will support Remain. Labour Leavers must see that and lend Boris their vote.

The Liberal Democrats are just as mad as the SNP and Labour. Their election campaign is all about Jo Swinson as an improbable presidential candidate and a ridiculous commitment to simply revoke our Article 50 notice to Leave. This has alienated even devout Remainers like former Lib Dem leader Vincent Cable who want a People's Vote but cannot stomach straight revocation. Even the elitist Greens rage against Swinson's contempt for democracy. Of course, the real Jo Swinson spoke her mind in October when she was asked whether she would respect a second Leave vote. “Of course not”, she responded. Jo really is a smart lady and knows what is best for us, just like Donald Tusk. However, this forceful proponent of Revoke and a People's Vote is implacably opposed to IndyRef2 no matter how often the Scottish people vote, in any election. She would, however, respect the vote of the Northern Irish people to join an all-Ireland state if the nationalists won a border poll. Jo has now all but admitted the obvious: the Lib Dems are a party of middle-class europhiliac “swivel-eyed loons” who have no hope of ever coming near power on their own steam. But in a hung Parliament they will support Corbyn, just as the excellent Vernon Bogdanor argued in the Guardian.

Plaid Cymru is dedicated to defending the voice of Wales, except when the Welsh people voted for Brexit in 2016. That greatest decision has to be trashed. Is that sane?  

The Brexit Party, by their runaway success in the Euro-Elections, forced the resignation of Theresa May. This allowed Boris to win the resulting Tory leadership election. We are thus on the brink of Brexit unless the Brexit Party scupper the Tory Party in key marginals and save Remain's failing cause and put Jeremy into No.10. Nice one Nigel...

What about the Tories in Scotland? I live in an Aberdeenshire which voted 45% for Brexit in 2016 and 40% for independence in 2014. I have received three leaflets from the Tories. I think that there is one low key mention about “Get Brexit Done”. The Tory message is all about “Stop IndyRef2”, the slogan of 2017. The Scottish Tory party have three very strong arguments to put across which are: 1. Get Brexit done; 2. Stop IndyRef2; 3. Stop Jeremy Corbyn.  Only the Tories can make these arguments but they are not being made except for Argument 2. Luckily for the Tories, people are smart enough to figure it out for themselves. Neither are the other parties mounting effective campaigns. In particular Corbyn and MacDonnell may have signed Scottish Labour's death warrant when they offer to accommodate IndyRef2. If there is little difference between Labour and SNP, why vote for the Labour “failing horse”?

The Tory policy on IndyRef2 is unsound – with the Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, (mischievously nick-named “Union Jack” by some) got it squarely right when he conceded that IndyRef2 will happen if a majority of Scottish MSPs are elected on a definite platform of holding an IndyRef2 vote in the 2021 Scottish elections. Jackson Carlaw's talk of 2054 is nonsense and everyone knows it.

The Scottish election is very fascinating because of the huge number of marginal seats. This is well brought out by Henry Hill's latest article on the subject in Conservative Home.  I predict that the Conservatives will suffer no net losses and will make some surprising gains.

In Scotland, we may see one last twist of fate. Snow is forecast for the end of this week. Some claim that heavy rain on 23 June 2016 helped deliver the Leave vote. General Winter to the rescue of Brexit? Father Christmas, please bring us a vibrant Brexit and end the madness...

 

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